A butterfly flapping enough to change the outcome of the election in Chicoutimi, by ballot of 11 April. This shows how the outcome of this race is and how unpredictable the next seventeen days will be crucial.
The poll by the firm Segma Research for Energy Red FM account and The Daily gives a six-point lead at the PQ candidate Mireille Jean on his liberal rival Francyne T. Gobeil. The situation is almost identical to that of 7 April 2014, while Stéphane Bédard resigning member was reappointed with a majority of just 1,605 votes, or 35% against 30% for his Liberal opponent Michel Mallette. The two parties therefore resume, a few percentage points, where they are left there two years ago.
With a margin of error of about 5% and more than one in four still undecided saying, the difference is minimal between the two leading candidates. Even to the extent the head of the poll, Raynald Harvey confirms a marked change in trend in recent days, while anger over the arrest of Nathalie Normandeau seems to have faded among voters. According to him, the answers recorded on Tuesday and Wednesday to the conclusion to an extremely tight race.
What should we expect now? Which candidates build on the caution? Which will play all the while advocating for a more aggressive approach?
One thing is certain, regardless of the strategy it chooses, Mireille Jean can not sit on its laurels. This survey is favorable and it will be certainly a positive influence undecided voters. Also, the sovereignist core constituency has not failed him and, no doubt, will be waiting for you on election day.
However, as a favorite, it will be the target fed fires during debates. It will respond to the legacy of Stephane Bedard, while distinguishing legitimate candidate of his party. Moreover, it must distance itself from its leader Pierre Karl Peladeau, who, according to the survey, lagging far behind François Legault in the ranking of opposition leaders. Despite the media exposure he receives from his entry into politics, the PQ leader barely exceed Françoise David of Québec solidaire, in the opinion of Chicoutimiens.
In recent days, Mireille Jean addressed various local issues convincingly, addressing in particular the draft of a possible prison block in Chicoutimi. It is essential that it continues in this vein and it confronts the government on its balance sheet in Chicoutimi, where few announcements were made since the coming to power of Philippe Couillard.
After stumbling in the firearms registry file after suffering the repercussions of arrests by UPAC, Francyne T. Gobeil was successful, obviously, to resume his campaign in hand. It would, however, interest in light some votives hoping that no other event shall tarnish the trademark endorses it, or that of the Liberal Party of Quebec.
To gain ground, says Raynald Harvey, the candidate will have to shoot down the map of power in whenever she has the opportunity, emphasizing the very limited duration of the mandate is at stake. The Chicoutimi voters could tempted by a two years experience in government.
Despite all that will tell or candidates, all training programs, several imponderables are likely to tip the balance to one side or the other: the premium to the ballot box, which historically favors the Liberals; turnout at elections; the public appearances of leaders and other MPs or ministers; etc. In a final sprint, the slightest mistake can turn into irreparable disaster.
The real campaign has now begun.