Ekos poll / Stopru dramatic jump Conservatives

conservateurs-stephen-harper-obtiendraient-354(From the Ottawa office) While the fight so far remained extremely tight between the Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Liberal Party, now the niqab folder moves the needle of voting intentions dramatically, according to a national survey by Ekos on behalf of La Presse. And it is the Harper Conservatives, who have pledged to legislate within 100 days to ban the niqab during ceremonies delivery oath of citizenship if they are returned to power on October 19, benefit most of the debate ignited on this issue.

Only party to want to ban the niqab if he comes to power, the Conservative Party saw its support jump by nearly six percentage points in less than a week, according to Ekos. If elections were held today, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would get 35.4% of the vote, which could be enough to form at least a minority government. This is especially the NDP seems scoop of this rise in the Conservative Party sees its support fall by 5.4 points nationally, reaching 24.5%. In doing so, the troops of Thomas Mulcair tumble third in the polls behind the Liberal Party, which supports crop 26.3%, down 1.1 percentage points. In all, Ekos interviewed 2343 Canadians in this survey from September 17 to 22. The margin of error is plus or minus 2%, 19 times out of 20.

Supports up in Quebec as

In Quebec, the Conservative Party also wins points in the wake of the debate on banning the niqab during ceremonies delivery of the citizenship oath. Its supports leap eight percentage points in the province, from 16% to 24%. Again, the NDP is the main loser: its support drop by eight points in this last blow probe, coming in at 33%. The Bloc Québécois, which also advocates for the ban on wearing the niqab, harvesting 18% of voting intentions in Quebec, up two points. The Liberal Party supports the move by just one point, reaching 19% (-1%). In Quebec, the sample is 680 people and the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%.

While his campaign was disrupted by various events during the first month of the campaign (trial of Mike Duffy, Statistics Canada data indicating that the country was in a technical recession in the first six months of the year and migrant crisis) the Conservative Party found still ahead in the polls in all regions except Quebec (where the NDP is first) and the Atlantic provinces (the Liberal Party are ranked first). According to the president of Ekos, Frank Graves, the wind blows in favor of troops Harper last week. “Within a week, which was a three-way race has turned into a lead for the Conservatives, while the Liberals and NDP lag behind,” said he said.

Possible gains in Quebec

According to Frank Graves, rising Conservative support in Quebec could allow them to make gains in the province, particularly in the Quebec City region. At the dissolution of Parliament, the Conservative Party held only 5 of the 75 seats in Quebec. Quebec now will have 78 seats in the Commons. In conservative ranks, strategists said their goal was to raise at least 10 seats in Quebec October 19. According to Frank Graves, it is clear that Stephen Harper’s position on the issue of Syrian refugees and the niqab has allowed it to stand out from other leaders. “The Conservative Party fared better in Alberta and Ontario, and interestingly, it shows signs of life in Quebec. Indeed, the Conservative Party is now in a position where it can hope to win seats in the Quebec City area. The files of refugees and the niqab are not strangers to this, “he analyzed.

Another conservative victory?

There are still more than three weeks in this long campaign and three other leaders’ debates, including one tonight in French in Montreal, organized by La Presse, Radio-Canada and Télé-Québec. However, a plurality of Canadians (35%) believe that it is the Harper Conservatives who will win on October 19, while 29% believe the contrary that the NDP will write a page of history on election day by forming the first social democratic government. Less than a quarter of respondents (24%) are convinced that it was the Liberals Justin Trudeau will comb everyone at the finish line.

Yes to constitutional discussions

Interestingly, there is an appetite among Canadians to reopen the Constitution to decide the future of the Senate (69% in favor; 22% against) or to meet the land claims of indigenous peoples in the country (57 % in favor and 35% against). But this appetite net disappears when it comes to restart talks so that Quebec sign the Canadian Constitution. Indeed, 53% of respondents reject this option, while only 36% support it. “The idea to revive the constitutional negotiations to satisfy Quebec is clearly rejected, even if the record of national unity raises ongoing discussions between Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau during the campaign,” said Frank Graves.


Survey Methodology

Ekos conducted this survey of 2343 Canadians from September 17 to 22 using an interactive voice server high definition (in English, High Definition Interactive Voice Response, or IVR). This technology allows a computer system to communicate with a user by phone. The firm used a proportion of respondents with a land line and another portion having a cell phone only to ensure greater reliability. The margin of error for this survey is plus or minus 2%, 19 times out of 20. In the case of Quebec, where there are 680 respondents, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.8%, 19 times 20.

A coalition more than a minority government
Canadians are not very enthusiastic about the idea of ​​a minority government moved to power on October 19, as suggested by the polls for some time. But support by a substantial majority the possibility of having in place a coalition government – whether led by Justin Trudeau or Thomas Mulcair.

According to a national survey by Ekos on behalf of La Presse, only 48% of Canadians believe that the election of a minority government would be good for the country, while 46% believe the contrary it would be harmful and that about 7% of people have no opinion about it.

But when asked Canadians if they see a good eye the formation of a coalition government between the Liberals and the New Democrats, they say yes in a proportion of 59% if the coalition is led by Justin Trudeau Liberal leader and a nearly identical 57% if it is headed by the leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP) Thomas Mulcair.

A minority government displeases

Only 41% of respondents prefer a Conservative minority government led by Stephen Harper instead of seeing Justin Trudeau to head a coalition to govern the country. The proportion of supporters of a minority Conservative government rises to 43% in the case of a coalition led by Thomas Mulcair.

“Coalitions are still a popular choice, especially among people who do not support the Conservative Party. Indeed, in so-called progressive voters, regardless of whether a Liberal or NDP, or that this coalition is led by Trudeau and Mulcair, support for a coalition is very high and certainly more that in 2011. But those who support the Conservatives strongly opposed to it, “analyzed Frank Graves of Ekos.

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