Oil prices have declined further Friday in New York, the market finding no reason to rebound given the oversupply, but not daring to move under the psychological threshold of $ 40.
The price of a barrel of “light sweet crude” (WTI) for October delivery, which was the first trading day, lost 87 cents to 40.45 dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). The benchmark contract hit 39.86 dollars to 14 h, the lowest since February 2009.
In London, Brent crude from the North Sea to the same maturity lost 1.16 dollars to 45.46 dollars, after getting off to 45.07 dollars, a level it had not seen since early March 2009.
In total, the WTI posted its eighth consecutive weekly decline, needing longest streak of weekly losses in 29 years, noted analysts at Commerzbank, while Brent recorded a seventh weekly decline in eight weeks.
The WTI weakness of access under the $ 40 coincided with the publication by the oil services company Baker Hughes its weekly report on the number of wells in operation in the United States.
This week we saw two wells operated more than last week, showering the hope of a future decline in US crude oil production.
But “we continue to see an oversupply of oil, and so it does not will balance with demand, prices remain under pressure,” said James Williams of WTRG Economics.
“So as long as OPEC [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] will not change strategy, we remain in a bear episode, and I think we still will test the 40 dollars the next week,” he added, considering that the price floor level was not yet in sight.
OPEC prefers obviously protect its market share rather than restricting its offer to raise prices.
Some OPEC countries like Venezuela and Algeria also again challenged the strategy of the cartel instigated by Saudi Arabia, the head of the organization file because their finances are undermined by plummeting course.
“At the end of the year, the only way some countries [cartel] will complete their 2016 budget will be through the use of magic,” argued Carl Larry, Frost & Sullivan. “OPEC must realize […] that consumption of the United States is there to save the day,” he added, saying that the cartel must act himself if he wants to recover lessons.
From the demand side, the publication of the PMI purchasing managers in China has reinforced fears about the economic health of the second largest economy and second biggest consumer of oil after the United States.
China’s manufacturing activity fell again heavily in August, the benchmark index to its lowest level in more than six years, to 47.1 against 47.8 in July.
But as noted by Mr. Williams, consumption in the developed OECD countries is declining, so that there is no basis to expect a short-term balance between global supply and demand.
The courses have lost more than half their value since June 2014, when they peaked, sealed by oversupply.
“We expect to see prices fall further this quarter,” with a horizon to 35 dollars for WTI and $ 40 for Brent, “with the point of maximum pressure as we approach the peak of the season of maintenance operations Fall refineries, “Commented in turn the JPMorgan analysts.
Carl Larry, one of the analysts generally confident about the possibility of a resumption of classes, going to judge “likely” to continue to fall to the level of 34 dollars, reached deep in recession in 2008 -09.