Poll CROP: the NDP dominates unchallenged

youri-rivest-npd-maintient(Ottawa) The New Democratic Party (NDP) dominates unchallenged voting intentions in Quebec two months before election day. After the orange wave that swept the province in 2011, a tsunami is on track to bring the troops of Thomas Mulcair to new heights, an indication that the general realignment of the political spectrum ago was four years not a hiccup, according to the polling firm CROP.

Domination “outrageous”

The NDP harvest unparalleled support in Quebec since the Orange wave of 2011, according to a CROP poll conducted online on behalf of La Presse on August 12 to 17. If elections were held today, the NDP would get the support of nearly one voter in two, or 47%. A jump of 11 points from the previous coup probe, conducted in June. The NDP and holds a lead of 27 percentage points over his closest opponent, the Liberal Party of Canada, to be content with 20% support. The Bloc Quebecois is good third with only 16%, while the Conservative Party had to settle for only 13% support. “This is spectacular for the NDP since there are four parties competing and where the NDP has the support of almost one in two Quebecers. This is an outrageous domination and this leaves little room for competition, “analyzed the Vice President of CROP, Youri Rivest. With such support, the NDP could win the vast majority of 78 seats in Quebec in the House of Commons. At the last election, the NDP had harvested 42.9% of the vote and won 59 seats in Quebec.

The effect is already fading Duceppe

The return of the head Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois, on 10 June, gave a breath of fresh air to the sovereigntist training in early summer. But this effect has worn off. In June, the Bloc had seen its support jump by 12 percentage points to stand at 25%. It now only harvested 16% of support in Quebec, according to the latest CROP poll. Result: the Bloc under the leadership of Gilles Duceppe essentially gets the same support as when he was directed by Mario Beaulieu. In the 2011 elections, the Bloc had collected about 23% of the vote and finished with only four deputies. With 16%, it could be wiped off the electoral map, unless its supports are highly concentrated in a region. “The Bloc comes back a little square one,” said Youri Rivest.

The PLC power away

The downward trend supports the Liberal Party of Canada continues: Justin Trudeau’s troops no longer collect 20% of support in Quebec; a drop of 17 percentage points since December. Worse, the Liberal Party fails to seduce francophone voters, which determine the winner in most of the 78 districts in the province. He harvests only a scrawny support of 13% for Francophones, while the NDP is full of support in this electorate (51% against 19% for the Bloc Québécois and the Conservative Party 12%). The Liberal Party could well end up election night without making gains in Quebec. And without a major breakthrough in the Belle Province, it will be difficult for him to take power in Ottawa, even a minority, according to Vice President of CROP, Youri Rivest.

Steep for the Conservative Party

Stephen Harper kicked off its national campaign in the Montreal riding of Mount Royal, undeniable sign that the Conservatives want to make gains in the province. But the blow probe CROP reconfirms that the Conservative Party has a long hill to climb in the province: it gets only 13% support. Another bad news, it also loses ground in the Quebec City area, where he hoped to resume the seats it lost in the hands of the NDP in the last election. CROP According to the survey, the NDP regained the lead in the National Capital Region with 45% of support, while the Conservative Party is a close second with 23%. The Liberal Party is third with 18%, while the Bloc Québécois is last with 13%. “The Conservative Party can not expect to do a lot of gains with such support,” said Youri Rivest.

Mulcair best prime minister

When asked Quebecers who among the party leaders, is the best to occupy the office of Prime Minister, 41% of them set their sights on Thomas Mulcair. This is an increase of five percentage points compared to the previous coup probe. The NDP leader also has a wide lead over his two main opponents in this category. Only 15% of Quebecers say instead that Justin Trudeau is more competent to lead the country, while 13% believe that it is the current occupant of 24 Sussex, Stephen Harper, who must continue to hold the post of Prime Minister .

Political Realignment

According Youri Rivest, if the NDP maintains its support in Quebec and again won the majority of seats on election day, it will confirm that the realignment of the political spectrum in 2011 was not a hiccup. “In 2011, some said that Quebecers were irrational, they had voted for Jack Layton and that it would not last. But if the NDP managed the feat again with a second head, it will demonstrate that there has been a fundamental change in the electorate. The NDP will be institutionalized in Quebec. It will be noted that the electorate has changed and this is not just due to the popularity of a person, a kind of coincidence, but a real political realignment as there are few “a-t- he analyzed.

Methodology
The online data collection took place from Aug. 12 to 17, 2015 through a web panel. In total, 1000 questionnaires were completed. The results were weighted to reflect the distribution of Quebec’s adult population by sex, age, region of residence, mother tongue and education level of respondents. Note that given the sample of non-probability, calculation of the margin of error does not apply.

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