For the first time in four years of bloody conflict, a slim hope of peace at last profile in Syria. A peace plan presented this week by the United Nations has received support from Iran, Thursday, by dangling a “great strategic realignment” around the Syrian conflict, says an analyst. But the road will be long. Explanations four times.
The violent war between since 2011 the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and the armed opposition has exhausted both sides. “Things have changed on the ground,” says Jocelyn Coulon, director of the Research Network on Peace Operations (ROP) of the University of Montreal, noting that Russia has undertaken the evacuation of its staff in Syria, ” which is always a sign that things are not going very well for the government in place. ” Breathless, the parties will negotiate to solve, especially as Russia and Iran now seem “perfectly willing” to “sacrifice Assad,” says Professor Thomas Juneau, of the University of Ottawa.
Avoid repeating the Iraqi error
The international community nevertheless wishes that a possible peace agreement leading to the creation of a national unity government that would include “the Assad regime elements” to maintain stability and to avoid the “complete dismantling institutions “as was the case in Iraq, says Thomas Juneau. “There is a tendency to believe that it can not be worse in Syria, but yes, it could be worse! If there is more central government, it makes the implementation of a peace agreement even more difficult “Jocelyn Coulon abounds in the same direction.” Iraq has shown that if we do not prepare was the debacle. ”
“Great strategic realignment”
This peace plan received unanimous support from the United Nations Security Council, which had previously been divided due to the Russian support to President Bashar al-Assad. Iran, a powerful regional ally of the Syrian government, also welcomed the initiative, which would not be foreign to the recent nuclear deal reached between Tehran and Washington, Jocelyn Coulon analysis. Speaking of a “great strategic realignment in the Middle East”, he considers that the agreement could lead to the “accountability” of Iran, which would now be tempted to “be part of the solution.” In return, he asks “how far the Saudis, who are in permanent conflict with the Iranians are prepared to accept that Iran plays this role for regional influence.”
Few details have leaked about the peace plan presented Monday by the UN, except it provides that “working groups” will begin in September separate discussions on four themes: safety and protection; political and legal issues; military and anti-terrorist actions; Finally, utilities, reconstruction and development. Thomas Juneau recognizes that this is a step forward, but sees “no reason to believe there will be a short- or medium-term agreement” because such a solution “measured in years, not in months. ” Moreover, unless a prior cease-fire discussions, Jocelyn Coulon feared “a repetition of violence,” common phenomenon when “the parties on the ground want to acquire a maximum of positions” before lowering arms.