Suspense on Canada-US relations in 2016

justin-trudeau-barack-obama-lorsThe Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will visit the White House at a convenient time to discuss with US President who could replace in November.

The first state dinner at the White House to a Canadian leader in 19 years will be in full primary elections, after voters in barometers states like South Carolina have already voted.

This vote will affect Canada-US relations. For if Barack Obama will begin the year 2016, his last in office, in a spirit of friendliness and ideological affinity with his Canadian counterpart, it is not clear how 2016 will end.

The Prime Minister and the President have transmitted their mutual affection and desire to lessen the potential irritants in their relationship, like the Keystone XL oil pipeline and the Canadian approach to change in the mission to fight against terrorism Middle East.

MM. Trudeau and Obama share many views, such as the Prime Minister has shown in days or weeks, attending with enthusiasm at the climate summit in Paris, establishing a tax increase for the rich and welcoming Syrian refugees in Toronto airport – an initiative applauded an editorial in the New York Times. All measures that could be priorities for Obama.

In fact, the president even seemed to compare the victory of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to his, by specifically mentioning the two words printed on his election posters retro look 2008 “hope” and “change” (hope and change).

“I know Canadians are incredibly inspired by your message of hope and change,” Obama said during his first press conference with the young prime minister.

It is unclear what will change exactly, concretely, between Canada and the United States. The Keystone XL pipeline project is dead for now. An agreement dating from 10 years ago on the timber has expired, which could encourage the emergence of disagreements between Ottawa and Washington. Politicians from both countries consider the ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Many other issues will arise in the US Congress this year on the economy; the changes promised by the presidential candidates, to bring to the Obamacare health insurance system; about 11 million workers on the black market; on immigration reform is paralyzed, etc.

According to Chris Sands, a relationship expert Canada-United States, director of the Centre for Canadian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies in Washington or Justin Trudeau, neither Harper nor any other Canadian Prime Minister could divert attention of the Congress of the important issues stack awaits next year.

“I see a lot of uncertainty emanating from Washington, which will be difficult for Canada,” he said.

How will end in 2016?

If the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton becomes the next president, parts of his program perfectly espouse that of Mr. Trudeau. Both want a North American partnership for climate and energy, for example. She was skeptical about the TPP, it should not be too urge the Prime Minister to rapidly ratify the agreement if elected in November.

Things are interesting on the Republican side, where the nomination contest is held in three or four candidates. A favorite should break away from the pack at the time of the visit of Mr. Trudeau at the White House.

The Prime Minister has already publicly shared his very lukewarm feelings about the two Republican candidates, Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz.

For others, their ideas seem already at odds with those of Mr. Trudeau. One of the more moderate candidate, Chris Christie, has recently indicated that it would refuse all Syrian refugees, including orphans of five. He summarized by its climate policy: “I do not think there is any crisis.”

Reacting to the victory of Mr. Trudeau, Marco Rubio, another Republican candidate, said he hoped to work with him to approve Keystone XL.

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