(Ottawa) The state of health of the canadian economy officially fell into recession during the first six months of the year, according to Statistics Canada, has dominated the exchanges between the various leaders of political parties all day Tuesday, each claiming its remedy to limit the damage.
And these exchanges muscular is likely to continue until the end of the week, as the national agency must disclose Friday other major economic data, the unemployment rate for the month of August.
On Tuesday, Statistics Canada has confirmed that the canadian economy had fallen down during the first six months of the year – what is the definition of a recession after a contraction of 0.5% in an annualized rate of GDP in the second quarter and a decline of 0.8% in the first quarter.
Canada is experiencing its second recession in six years after the difficult economic crisis of 2008 and 2009. Obviously, the Canada, which is the fifth largest producer of oil on the planet, has been hit hard by the effects of the fall in oil prices since a year, and becomes the only G7 country to be in recession this year.
The economists expected of such disappointing results for the first half of the year. But the majority of them expect that this recession will be short-lived, all the more that the economy of the United States, the main trading partner of Canada, and is growing at a pace greater than expected. The growth of the american economy was 3.7% in annualized terms in the second quarter.
The decline of Canada’s GDP in the second quarter has been less pronounced than predicted by the average of analysts, who expected a contraction of 0.8%. In contrast, Statistics Canada has revised the decline in the first quarter, initially reported 0.6%.
In addition, Statistics Canada reported a rebound of 0.5% of GDP in June compared to may, a sign that the recession may already be over. The GDP figures for July, which will be unveiled in October, two weeks before the federal election of the
October 19, therefore, may be decisive for the future of the conservative government of Stephen Harper, in power since 2006 and is seeking a fourth term.
Recall that the Bank of Canada has conducted two cuts of a quarter of a point from its key interest rate since the beginning of the year to stimulate the economy, and it now stands at 0.50%. It is anticipated that the growth of the canadian economy in 2015 will reach 1.1 per cent.
Stay the course
Quickly after the announcement of the data on the negative growth of the canadian economy, the conservative opposition leader Stephen Harper has tried to highlight the positive aspects of the report of the federal agency, while other leaders have stressed in unison that these data are further proof that a change is needed in Ottawa.
Mr. Harper said he was encouraged to see that the canadian economy had started to do better in June. It has been argued that this is evidence that his economic action plan gives convincing results, and added that it is necessary, therefore, to maintain the cap.
“The fact is that more than 80% of the canadian economy is growing. And the economy as a whole is now growing according to the data of June… It is the reality of the situation. This is good news,” he said at a press conference in the Hamilton area, in the heart of Ontario’s manufacturing.
Mr. Harper added that these data are evidence that his plan is working and that any change of course would be disastrous for the canadian economy, which would bog down in a “permanent recession”.
“Today’s figures demonstrate the compelling need for a change in Ottawa,” retorted the leader of the NDP, Thomas Mulcair, passage Tuesday in Kelowna, British Columbia. “We can’t continue with the way Mr. Harper, it is a failure.”
The leader of the liberal Party, Justin Trudeau, has argued that his party is the only one to commit to take measures to revive the economy. He recalled his promise to invest $ 60 billion more on
10 years in infrastructure to create jobs. However, Canadians should accept deficits close to 10 billion dollars over the next three years. The return to equilibrium would be reached in 2019-2020.