(Quebec) Three of the four leaders of the major parties have already made a stop in Quebec city for the launch of the election campaign, while the liberal Justin Trudeau is still waiting. If his team ensures that it won’t be long and that it does not measure the importance that he attaches to the region, the experts remind us that nothing is left to chance in the route of the leaders.
A week after the start of the marathon election, the outgoing prime minister Stephen Harper was the first to arrive in the National Capital. Two days later, the bloquiste Gilles Duceppe came to announce its candidates. The next day, it was the turn of the leader of the New democratic Party (NDP) Thomas Mulcair to appear in Quebec city, where its members were in the majority in Ottawa. The conservative leader is back in the beginning of the week and even stayed for two days.
What is Justin Trudeau? The liberal Party of Canada (LPC), we are assured that he will do his tour in the region very soon, leaving even hear that it could be as early as next week. It is important not to see this as a sign that the liberal leader gives less importance to Quebec than the other, we are told. The campaign is very long, it was argued, and if Stephen Harper came on two occasions, it may be that he feels the hot soup to its candidates.
In the meantime, those of Mr. Trudeau are not impatient. “We were doing our field work, we don’t need our leader for that”, points out the one who tries his luck in Quebec, Jean-Yves Duclos.
“The country is great”, says the economist, who, however, stresses that it is always a pleasure to have Justin Trudeau in the corner. The one who is present in Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis, Jacques Turgeon, believes that it is preferable that its leader vienna later in the campaign “because it leaves traces on the day of the election,” and that voters have the visit into memory once at the polls. The two men agree, however, that the coming of the chief whips of the troops, and may have a beneficial effect in the election because of the “buzz” that this creates.
A political scientist at the University of Laval, Thierry Giasson argued that the campaign is very long and that, in this context, what happened at the beginning, “will have an impact at the margin”, as it has been triggered in the middle of the summer. “I don’t think the fact that he [Justin Trudeau] is not yet come is going to have a significant effect. But it would, however, he comes”, he says.
Just like his colleague Eric Montigny, he recalls, however, that the tour leaders are brilliantly orchestrated and that nothing is left to chance. Two questions guide the policy makers, ” says Mr. Montigny : what are the counties that we can take and that we must defend and what is the organizational capacity on the ground to welcome the politician to be featured? The expert points out that all the regional organisers are in competition to have the right to visit as expected.
According to the political scientist, the conservatives have clearly identified Quebec as a place where they can make gains, while the new democrats want to retain their gains. “The region is pivotal for both parties.” Unlike the liberals, all the conditions are met, he argued, adding, however, that the National Capital remains a must and that Justin Trudeau and his team are well aware of this reality, although they were not made to elect a candidate since 2000.