(Carleton) One week of the federal election of October 19, nothing is in the constituencies of Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia, and Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine. Voters may take two tight battles.
Comparisons with the 2011 elections are complicated by the fact that the two districts have been subjected to a change in their electoral map. The MRC Avignon was output Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine, whereas the MRC de La Haute-Gaspésie was included there.
In 2011, the fight was tight in Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine, where the NDP Philip Toone won by 777 on the Bloc Québécois candidate Daniel Côté. Mr. Toone faces this time five opponents who are in their first attempt in federal politics.
In what was called Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia, the incumbent Jean-Franqois Fortin continued the Bloc reign in 2011, reign began in 1993, winning by 3669 votes over the Liberal candidate, the late Nancy Charest. However, he left the block in the summer of 2014, to found democracy forces and two months later.
The situation of Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia is quite unique with an outgoing member, Mr. Fortin, representing a new party, but elected with a good lead for a formation that dominated for 21 years, all in one constituency where the geographical heart, Matapédia and Matane was not represented by a Liberal candidate since 1984, or curator since 1993.
The riding of Gaspesie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine also has a prediction challenge. It hosts Haute-Gaspésie, which had supported Jean-François Fortin while Bloc. She crossed the floor regularly, the election of NDP Philip Toone who attended three terms of the Bloc Quebecois in 2004, 2006 and 2008, and a mandate from the Liberal Party in 2000. She also changed its name and territory was subjected to changes since the election of 1993.
What do the surveys? According to the Pan-Canadian website ThreeHundredEight.com (308), which compiles an amalgam of surveys conducted by various media or firms, the Liberals are ahead in the Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine and Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia .
Sociologist Pierre-Luc Lupien, of Carleton College, says that one must be extremely careful with sites like ThreeHundredEight.com.
“The ability to verify the sources and methods of calculation seems daunting. It is not easy to know the sample size, and how it was built. For instance, the reality of mobile phones, there is a distortion when mounting a sample from the phone book. One problem with these surveys compilations is that they have an impact on voting intentions, the people who vote strategically. The electoral compasses are based on volunteers. This is not a representative sample, it “warns Mr. Lupien.
He recalled that some countries prohibit election polls, because of gaps in quantification methods and the influence of these consultations in the polls.