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Donald Trump proclaims to anyone who will listen that it is thanks to his firmness toward North Korea that Kim Jong-un is going to meet him. Japan welcomes the announced meeting. The south Korean president is jubilant. China and Russia encourage the United States to promptly initiate negotiations with North Korea.
Yet, no country has the same interests in the face of North Korea. The United States in particular, have much to lose in potential negotiations.
1. What is the background of the problem ?
The bottom of the problem is the rivalry stronger between China and the United States. China is replacing the United States as a global superpower. It is located in the Pacific ocean by a barrier military controlled by the United States. This barrier is comprised of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Guam, and various american allies. The chinese government has been trying for decades to get rid of this vice. Its efforts are finally beginning to bear fruit.
2. What are the american bases in South Korea ?
The us military bases are at the heart of negotiations with North Korea. The latter will require that its denuclearization is associated with the dismantling of the american bases in south korea. However, these bases have multiple roles. They deter North Korea from attacking South Korea. They provide the United States locations of choice to attack China or to defend. These bases have the same responsibilities in the face of Russia.
3. What would be the consequences of a withdrawal of american bases ?
An eventual military withdrawal of the United States of South Korea would have serious consequences for the long-term U.s. allies in the region. First, it would announce the withdrawal of the United States of this part of the world. Then, it would completely swing in the lap of China, South Korea, or a Korea reunified. Japan, whose defense system is still highly integrated with that of the United States, there would be a signal to become more independent militarily. Other american allies would change sides, such as the Philippines are already in the process of doing so.
4. Washington is the best support to Pyongyang ?
North Korea was a good deal of Americans as long as it was not a nuclear power, since it justified their military presence in the region. Now, the prospect of the denuclearization and reunification of the two Koreas weakens the position of the United States. Of the rest, the new combat arms, and especially the missiles hypersonic, are in the process of changing the game of deterrence because they make States more vulnerable to attacks. In the Face of these new threats, each country will need to rely more on itself. The United States becomes less necessary.