War! Chinese celebrates…

Война! Китаец торжествует...

War! Chinese celebrates…
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Forward, the Chinese army can move weak reservists, who will crush the enemy. But such are professional fighters have to consolidate the success of the walking track. Photo: GLOBAL LOOK PRESS

In the Internet appeared the scenario of a global conflict of Russia and China.

On the website of the magazine “Snob” published material which is hotly debated by experts and “sympathizers”. It describes the scenario of a possible Chinese aggression, similar to what happened with Germany on 22 June 1941. It was developed by Alexander Khramchikhin, Deputy Director of the Institute of political and military analysis. And everything is so organized that it is scary.

So version expert, what would be the June 22 version 2.0…

Came 20… year. Russia is the traditional new year’s hibernation. In Moscow the late evening of 2 January, the far East the next morning, in Siberia – the middle of the night.

Step 1: at Exactly four in the morning

At 4 a.m. on 3 January, local time, two dozen Mi-17 helicopters with the Chinese special forces on Board at extremely low altitudes for a few minutes to overcome the distance from the border in the area of Fuyuan to Khabarovsk and land on the stadium. Lenin. In this place is the Consulate General of China in Khabarovsk. It acts as a guidance point landing. The commandos immediately get transport – minibuses, standing in the many garages of the Consulate. 5 minutes drive to the station and captured it, immediately cutting the TRANS-Siberian. The other part of the troops capture the headquarters of the Eastern military district. After that, the city begins the shooting of local military leadership (addresses provided by the employees of the Consulate and members of the Chinese Diaspora).

After the success of the operation in Pain (now known as Khabarovsk) with Chinese territory begin to “work” long-range (up to 400 km) reactive multiple rocket launchers WS-2D, which correct drones. For half an hour completely “plowed into the ground” and sunk, all military facilities of the Russian Federation in the Amur and Jewish Autonomous oblasts, TRANS-Baikal, Primorsky and Khabarovsk Krai, in Vladivostok.

At the same time, the Chinese “Second artillery” (similar to the strategic Missile forces) and air force deal a massive blow to the missile divisions of the strategic missile forces in Irkutsk, City, Barnaul, and Novosibirsk, on the objects of air defense and ground forces in the same regions and in Buryatia. At the same time the task force Navy people’s liberation army (PLA) causes a massive air and missile attack on Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Vilyuchinsk, followed by a landing.

Step 2: the “Cannon fodder” ready

After a couple of hours (in Moscow, in the middle of the night) reserve division of the PLA, pre-concentrated along the border under the pretext of exercises, moving across the ice of Amur and Ussuri. They are equipped with old technology, and staffed with poorly trained soldiers, but to resist them to no one. Rare survivors of quickly suppressed by the mass of the Chinese people. The main opponents of the PLA be weather and distance. But broken on the Russian roads junk and frostbite village “cannon fodder” commanders do not mind. The important thing is that troops successfully occupy a territory, capturing at the same time located at the border of the Russian base for storage of weapons.

The PLA air force, meanwhile, begin to strike at the objects of air defense forces of Kazakhstan, as a regular part of Lanzhou IN the PLA crossing the border. By the evening of 3 January in the battle entered the 15th airborne corps of the PLA, one of his divisions captured Yakutsk, Astana and Ulan Bator.

Step 3: Ultimatum To Moscow

In Moscow trying to understand what is happening. And then the Chinese Ambassador officially informs that several hours passed Chinese radio and TV: two centuries of humiliation of the Chinese nation the great imperialist powers is completed. The nation revived its former glory, and rejects all unfair treaties imposed on her by imperialists in the first place – Russia…

Part of the Russian leadership is on vacation in Europe and some immediately stop communicating. Remaining in Moscow are aware of the terrible reality: to the East of the Urals in a state of combat readiness there is one tank brigade in the Chelyabinsk region, three infantry brigades in the Sverdlovsk, Kemerovo areas and on Sakhalin, and one air base MiG-31 in the Krasnoyarsk region. Something survived in Buryatia, but the connection is unstable.

Reports of crash of trains on the TRANS-Siberian railway from sabotage. Thus, to defend the Eastern part of the country nothing, and reinforcements impossible.

The invasion of the Chinese in Kazakhstan creates a real threat of their release a few days in the European part.

Step 4: NATO this is not necessary

Moscow appealed for help in Brussels and Washington. NATO promises within a week to convene an urgent session. However, from Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn follow the statement that China was a victim of Russian imperialism, as Poland and the Baltic States. The Republic will never provide Russian military aid and the entire NATO (where decisions are made by consensus) will not. Europe sighs with relief: now have someone to blame the failure.

In Washington are frantically trying to figure out if you need alone to help the Russian.

Step 5: the Russian counter-offensive

Meanwhile, the Chinese “cannon fodder” successfully moving into Russia. The first serious resistance they meet in Buryatia, where part of the group of the armed forces really survived. In addition, local efforts have managed to spend at least some mobilization.

The first real blow draws Chinese reservists in flight. But the action takes freely transferred to already occupied Russian territory, the group of units of 16th, 38th, 39th and 54th armies of the PLA ground forces with strong air support. It is already well-trained regular units, armed with the latest technology.

Quickly crushing the Russians, they go to lake Baikal, overcome him on the ice and capture Irkutsk. The road to the West free, and almost all the East is already under the control of the PLA.

Moscow is trying to start a General mobilization, but the system has long collapsed. Begins to seriously considered the option of use of nuclear weapons on enemy territory.

Step 6: the Nuclear trump card

Russian (and, of course, American) reconnaissance satellites suddenly detect in Central China, more than 800 mobile missile launchers. After a few hours of missiles already more than a thousand. The Chinese media claimed that the Chinese leadership no longer believes it necessary to hide the size of its nuclear missile Arsenal: this is a 745 Intercontinental ballistic missiles and ballistic 1256 medium-range missiles; the total number of nuclear warheads of various classes is 8.5 thousand units.

Perhaps a significant part of the rockets actually models. But the desire to check this version in practice, no.

Washington officially declares non-intervention in the war. In Moscow understand that blood does not make sense. China will survive the death of several tens of millions of people – he is not worried. In Russia, however chances of survival when retaliation is not the slightest.

Moscow agrees to talks with Beijing.

Step 7: a peace Treaty

A peace Treaty signed on February 23, Pain in a building, where only two months earlier was the headquarters of the TSB. The official border between China and Russia is restored in accordance with the Nerchinsk Treaty of 1689 and the Treaty of Kyakhta in 1727. China leave enormous areas, some permanently, others for a ridiculous rental fee (see chart).

Война! Китаец торжествует...

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NATO and the UN declare that are satisfied with such a rapid and peaceful resolution of the conflict.

The Pentagon generals and admirals are in outright delight: now the money will flow, as is necessary to restrain tremendously the efforts of China.

Full version published on snob.ru/profile/27172/blog/61865.


Konstantin SIVKOV, first Vice-President of Academy of geopolitical problems, doctor of military Sciences:

– With military-strategic point of view, the scenario does not hold water. Let’s start with the fact that the Russian-Chinese border is now quite transparent and quietly accumulate reserves will not work. And in the event of aggression, our troops on alert to be withdrawn from areas of permanent deployment. And not all the first strikes of the Chinese people to achieve the goals. Blitzkrieg will not work.

However, the military-political point of view, the scenario is untenable. I recall the last time China engaged in military activity in February – March 1979 (!) year. And U.S. allies in the twenty-first century, waged several major wars. So who is more suited to the role of the aggressor – China or USA?

Especially touched by a passage that Poland and the Baltic States will not allow Moscow to provide military assistance. In the force majeure NATO will not pay attention to them. And the Pentagon realizes that if China, with its potential human resources, the armed forces will receive Russian economic base of the Urals to the Far East. And there are enterprises producing military equipment, nuclear, scientific potential, minerals… Plus Russian and Kazakh uranium mines! West received a terrible enemy of the Soviet Union – the nuclear colossus on feet.

So that Washington would intervene in the conflict within days and even hours. And threaten nuclear club. By the way, the Russian nuclear weapons capable of destroying tens or hundreds of millions of Chinese. It is also a deterrent to Beijing.

China aviation numerous, albeit, with outdated weapons. Joint attack the remaining American and Russian aircraft the Chinese offensive will be stopped.

Beijing is well aware. Therefore, at this stage, the attack on Russia is unlikely. However, such a scenario is not excluded after China modernizing its armed forces. It will take 10 years – 15. What the hawks will then be in power? And what is Russia?

Andrei FURSOV, Director of the Institute of system-strategic analysis:

– Beijing has now absolutely other problems. Acute global rivalry with the United States. The United States declared a priority area, the Pacific basin, East Asia. Here is the fleet. In American universities more and more money allocates for research on East Asia and the Middle East goes by the wayside. The rivalry of the two powers takes on different forms. In April, for example, escalated the hysteria over the upcoming test missiles in North Korea. Washington had to go begging on the eve of the announced launch rockets arrived in Beijing, the new U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry. He persuaded the authorities of China to calm North Korean leader. The issue of North Korean missiles immediately removed from the agenda. Only “time” the bombings in Boston has shifted the public’s focus from the shame of the United States in the international arena.

China under these conditions need not hostile to Russia, and a quiet rear, and our raw materials. War with a neighbor for Beijing would be a complete gamble.